With a light-hearted example, this presentation illustrates why it is so difficult to determine the value of a project at initiation or determine whether it will be a success, taking the audience through the conception of the project, the analysis of the costs, the estimate of the benefits, and the possible outcomes. This example explores why standard financial analysis techniques do not always assist us in getting the best outcome from a project investment decsion, and why benefits realisation is often so difficult to accurately forecast.