This webinar looks at two processes that are ‘baked into’ standard project management estimating and control to show how recommended good practices are still optimistically biased.
- When preparing an estimate good practice recommends using Monte Carlo to determine an appropriate contingency and the level of risk to accept. However, the typical range distributions used are biased – they ignore the ‘long tail’.
- When reporting progress, the estimating bias should be identified and rectified to offer a realistic projection of a project outcome. Standard cost and schedule processes typically fail to adequately deal with this challenge meaning the final time and cost overruns are not predicted until late in the project.
This webinar highlights at least some of the causes for these problems. Solving the cultural and management issues is for another time.
